The Congress, on the other hand, is likely to win 30-42 seats in Haryana. In the last election, Congress won just 15 seats in Haryana.

This comes as a major surprise as most exit polls have predicted a comfortable victory for the BJP.

If the results of the India Today-Axis My India exit poll for Haryana hold true on October 24, when the Election Commission will declare assembly election results, Haryana will prove to be a tough challenge for the BJP and Congress, seeing a neck-and-neck fight.

In terms of party-wise vote share in Haryana, the India Today-Axis My India exit poll has predicted the BJP to secure 33 per cent votes, the Congress to secure 32 per cent vote share and the JJP to get 14 per cent votes in this assembly elections.

The India Today-Axis My India exit poll has also prepared a region-wise result for Haryana. The exit poll predicts the BJP to win six of 14 seats in Ambala, while the Congress is expected to win 7 seats and the JJP one seat.

In Faridabad region, there are 12 seats and the BJP is expected to win 5 of them, the Congress 6 and Others 1.

In Gurgaon, BJP is predicted to win 7 of the 11 seats, the Congress and Others two seats each.

Hisar region has 20 seats, of which the BJP and Congress are likely to win 6 seats each. The JJP is expected to win 5 seats here, while Others may pick up 3 seats.

In Karnal, the India Today exit poll predicts Congress to win 4 seats, the BJP eight, while JJP may pick up one seat.

Rohtak, which has 20 seats, will see a dominance on Congress as it is expected to win 10 seats. The BJP is likely to win 6 seats and the JJP and Others may win 2 seats each.

ANALYSIS

An estimated 68.47 per cent of Haryana’s over 1.8 crore voters exercised their franchise Monday, down from 76.54 per cent recorded in the 2014.

Manjeet Sehgal, India Today TV’s Deputy Editor in Chandigarh, attributed the Congress’ projected advance to Hooda’s appeal among the state’s dominant Jat community and to the party’s election pledge to address farm distress and unemployment if voted to power.

“Unfortunately though, the Congress still didn’t deploy its full energy in disseminating its poll manifesto across the state,” Sehgal said. Of the 40 star campaigners the party had originally listed for electioneering in Haryana, as many as 26 dropped out from canvassing, he noted. Even Congress leader Sonia Gandhi abruptly cancelled two of her rallies in the state, Sehgal explained.

The BJP’s campaign focused mostly on nationalistic issues, such as the scrapping of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status and the Balakot strikes, and on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal charisma.

“Many Haryana voters, however, felt that their local issues were not addressed satisfactorily by the Khattar government. Besides, the Hooda factor played its own role in affecting the BJP’s vote share in at least 30 Jat-dominated constituencies,” Sehgal said.

METHODOLOGY

The India Today-Axis My India exit poll for Haryana used face-to-face interviews with questionnaire in all 90 assembly seats in Haryana. The poll included a sample size of 23,118.

Seventy-two per cent of the respondents were in rural areas while 28 per cent were in urban centres. \

Majority of the respondents were in the age group of 36-50 years (32 per cent), followed by 26-35 years (30 per cent), and 18-25 years (19 per cent).

POLITICAL CONTEXT

Voting for the Haryana assembly elections was held on Monday and the state recorded a voter turnout of 65 per cent.

The Haryana assembly elections are important because they were held just five months after the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in which the BJP swept the entire North India. In Haryana, the BJP won all the nine Lok Sabha seats, as it did it in the 2014 Lok Sabha election.

In the 2014 Haryana assembly election, the BJP had won 47 seats in the 90-member assembly, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) won 19 seats, the Congress won 15 seats, while Others won 9 seats.

A poll of polls of five exit polls conducted by other media organisations predicts the BJP to win 69 seats in the 90-member Haryana assembly. The Congress on the other hand is expected to win 11 seats and Others to pick up 10.