Maharashtra, the richest state in India, is undergoing intense political drama that threatens the stability of its government.
In a hotel in Guwahati, the capital of the north-eastern state of Assam, thousands of kilometres from Maharashtra, are about 35 parliamentarians, including powerful state minister Eknath Shinde.
They are members of the Shiv Sena party, which together with the Congress party and the local Nationalist Congress Party currently controls Maharashtra (NCP).
Mr. Shinde, a longtime Shiv Sena member, asserts that he is representing his party’s interests. However, his revolt has put the state’s administration in danger of disintegrating.
Uddhav Thackeray, the chief minister and leader of the Shiv Sena, departed his official residence on Wednesday night after giving an emotional address pleading with the rebel lawmakers to come back and speak to him.
Why is the insurrection relevant?
Maharashtra is one of India’s major states and a politically significant region for all national parties; it is the location of the nation’s financial hub Mumbai, the Bollywood film industry, and some of the biggest businesses.
State-level events frequently have an immediate effect on federal politics.
An odd coalition that includes the vehemently right-wing Shiv Sena, the centrist NCP, the Congress, and independent MPs has been in power there since 2019.
They were able to defeat India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which had won the most seats, by combining their efforts to surpass the halfway point of 144 members in the 288-member house.
As a result of disagreements over power sharing, the Shiv Sena and the BJP, its longtime partner, parted. The two Hindu nationalist parties had a tense relationship in the years preceding their breakup, despite having similar ideologies.
To defend the rights of Mumbai’s Marathi-speaking population, the Shiv Sena was founded as an ethnic, nativist party. It positioned itself as a party that supported Hindu interests after losing a significant portion of its initial support base, and its base has historically been anti-Congress.
Thus, rumours of its partnership with the Congress caused political catastrophe and raised many questions. However, Mr. Thackeray and his associates had up until this point survived a number of catastrophes.
According to reports, Mr. Shinde is interested in resurrecting the BJP’s alliance and restoring it to power in the state. The existing coalition government would lose its majority if he managed to win over more Shiv Sena lawmakers.
Where did it begin?
After the state’s legislative council elections on Monday, Mr. Shinde became “unreachable,” which sparked the situation.
Although six of the ten seats were expected to go to the Shiv Sena and its allies, they only managed to win five. Despite rumours of cross-voting by Sena dissidents, the BJP, which was predicted to win only four, won the remaining five.
Then, according to media accounts, Mr. Shinde had departed for Surat city in the western state of Gujarat, where the BJP is in power, along with 11 additional Sena lawmakers.
In response, Mr. Thackeray fired Mr. Shinde as party whip.
When BJP leaders later paid him a visit at his hotel in Gujarat, Mr. Shinde was photographed meeting with them after removing the Shiv Sena from his Twitter profile.
What’s going on right now?
Over Tuesday night, shortly after speaking with Mr. Thackeray on the phone, Mr. Shinde and his supporters took a flight to the BJP-controlled Guwahati city in Assam.
Unnamed sources told a national daily that the group was relocated to Assam in part because Gujarat was “too near to Maharashtra,” increasing the likelihood that angry MPs would flock to Mr. Thackeray.
One MP who left Maharashtra on Wednesday claimed that when he attempted to protest, he was forcibly transported to Surat and admitted to a hospital. Another said that Mr. Shinde’s supporters “misled” him and had him transported to Gujarat under false pretences; however, he had managed to flee.
Mr. Shinde requires the backing of 37 state lawmakers in order to avoid disqualification under India’s anti-defection law. Although the number has not yet been objectively verified, he has stated that he has the support of 40 Sena lawmakers and six independents.
Mr. Shinde has asserted that he is not leaving the Shiv Sena and that the legislators would continue the Hindu nationalist tradition of the late chief minister’s father, Balasaheb Thackeray, who founded the party.
Sanjay Raut, a senior Shiv Sena politician, has accused the BJP of attempting to overthrow the coalition government and placed blame for the uprising within his party.
Senior BJP officials have refuted this, stating the problem was a “internal matter” with the Shiv Sena.
According to accounts, Mr. Thackeray’s journey to his home on Wednesday night was made into a “display of strength” by the hundreds of Shiv Sena fans who stood in the rain at night to express their support for him. Some even sobbed when he received them.
But it is still unclear whether these discussions and others will be successful in luring back enough MPs to the party to support the faltering administration.
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