Odisha’s 3T Plan is proving to be a lifeline for the Third Wave. According to the report, only 38% of RTPCR tests are giving Omicron spread wings.
Odisha is in the midst of the third wave’s exponential expansion period. A single positive is infecting nearly six other people. The R-value and epidemic growth rate in the state point to an exponential growth rate in the next two weeks.
The epidemic math suggests that incidences in Odisha would likely peak in the first two weeks of February.
According to a report by Cambridge University, the New Delhi-based Health System Transformation Portal, and the UK-based National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the country’s daily growth rate has begun to plateau at 34.9 percent as of January 9, 2022, indicating the end of the third wave’s super-exponential growth phase.
According to the research, “In Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Jharkhand, and West Bengal, daily growth rates have peaked and are now plainly dropping. The daily growth rate in Jharkhand peaked at 57 percent on January 4 and has subsequently dropped to 23 percent. After reaching a high of 53 percent on January 5, the daily growth rate in Delhi has dropped to 36 percent.”
According to the report, daily cases are expected to peak in Jharkhand in the second half of January and in Delhi at the end of January, based on existing trends.
In Odisha, though, the situation is less rosy. The R-value for the State, according to a Cambridge University research, will be at 5.91 percent on January 9, 2022. And the State’s filtered daily growth rate has been calculated to be a whopping 44.4 percent.
Because the State’s filtered growth rate is increasing (from roughly 15% on January 3, 2022 to 44.4 percent on January 9, 2022), the data implies that the peak will occur in the first half of February.
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