The BJP-Sena alliance is forecast to win between 166 and 194 of the state’s 288 constituencies in the October 21 vote. The predicted outcome is hardly any different from the 2014 verdict that gave the BJP 122 and the Sena 63 seats. Back then, the two parties fought elections separately and stitched a post-election alliance, which raised their joint tally to 185.

According to the exit poll, the BJP this time is likely win 109-124 seats on its own and the Sena between 57 and 70.

STATUS QUO FOR OPPOSITION

More than 30 leaders in the NCP-Congress camp jumped ship ahead of Maharashtra elections this year. Still, the Opposition is forecast to be preserving the status quo, winning between 72 and 90 seats. The Congress, according to the exit poll, is expected to get 32-40 seats and the NCP between 40 and 50. In 2014, the Congress secured 42 and Sharad Pawar’s NCP 41.

Among other groups, Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena fielded 101 candidates, the CPI 16, the CPM 8 and the BSP 262 in state elections this year. According to the exit poll, Others are likely to secure 22-34 seats collectively, up from 20 in 2014.

VOTE SHARE — FROM MAY TO OCT

Compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, the poll data suggest the BJP-Sena’s combined vote share might have come down from 51 per cent in May to 45 per cent now. The vote share of the NCP-Congress alliance, on the other hand, is likely to have risen from 32 per cent to 35 per cent over the past five months, according to exit-poll figures.

“I am confident that the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance will win around 225 seats,” insisted Union minister Piyush Goyal in Mumbai Monday. “The Opposition has lost all credibility and is nowhere in the contest.”

But the India Today-Axis-My-India exit poll shows the governing coalition may fall short of the thumping victory Goyal predicted.

ANALYSIS

During electioneering, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held nine rallies across Maharashtra. The BJP’s top brass, including the PM and his cabinet colleagues Amit Shah and Rajnath Singh, used the nationalism plank aggressively in their bid to woo the voters.

The central government’s move to scrap Jammu and Kashmir’s special status featured prominently in the saffron campaign that targeted the opposition alliance over national security.

On its part, the Congress-NCP combine attacked the ruling BJP for its handling of the economy. In their public meetings, opposition leaders attributed the slowdown to the 2016 demonetisation and to what they called was a shoddy rollout of the GST under the Modi administration.

The BJP and the Sena, however, flip-flopped for months over partnering before they formalised a coalition earlier this year. Sahil Joshi, India Today TV’s Executive Editor in Mumbai, explained that the shift from their harsh no-accord statements to forging an alliance might have affected cadre confidence.

According to political observers, the Congress restricted its campaign largely to the micro-level, unlike the BJP’s state-wide outreach. “Rahul Gandhi led eight rallies, abysmally. His mother and sister stayed away from the campaign. This left the Congress trailing in the campaign,” Joshi noted.

On the contrary, the NCP leadership came out at its energetic best, he said. “The 79-year-old NCP chief, Sharad Pawar, conducted over 60 rallies. His speech in Satara in heavy rains went viral. And that was perhaps the biggest hit of the campaign,” Joshi concluded.

METHODOLOGY

The exit poll is based on face-to-face interviews with voters across Maharashtra’s 288 assembly constituencies, with a sample size of 60,609.